Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

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The USGS Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when and to what extent future population growth, urban growth and shoreline development may threaten the nearshore environment by 2060 (Byrd et al., 2011). The tool focuses on threats to barrier and bluff-backed beaches, which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. A suite of sub-models identify multiple connections between land use and the nearshore’s capacity to support valued ecosystem components (VECs) and ecosystem services (Figure 1, Table 1). The PSEPM builds on approaches used in the South Florida EPM (http://lcat.usgs.gov/sflorida/sflorida.html) (Labiosa et al., 2009 -- http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2009/5181/).

Model Results

Shellfish Pollution Model - estimates fecal coliformbacteria associated with feces that indicate the likelihood that drinking water will cause a bacterial infection. bacteria concentrations in commercial shellfish growing areas based on scenarios of land cover change in drainages. Click here to compare model results across scenarios and here to see differences between scenarios.

Beach Armoring Index – scores beaches based on the potential for geomorphological and ecological changes due to scenarios of cumulative on-site and updrift armoring. Click here to compare model results across scenarios and here to see differences between scenarios.

Recreation Visits Model – models changes in State Park beach visitation based on scenarios of population distributions in Puget Sound. Click here to compare model results across scenarios and here to see differences between scenarios.

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