File:Fuller et al 2011 using sea level rise model results.pdf

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Fuller, R., N. Cofer-Shabica, Z. Ferdana, A. Whelchel, N. Herold, K. Schmid, B. Smith, D. Marcy, D. Eslinger, and P. Taylor. 2011. Marshes on the Move: A Manager’s Guide to Understanding and Using Model Results Depicting Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands. The Nature Conservancy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Narragansett, RI and Charleston, SC.

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Abstract (Closed to Editing)

Coastal wetlands are dynamic and respond in different ways to changes in sea level. With global sea level rising, coastal wetlands may disappear under the rising seas, persist in their current locations, or migrate inland, depending on local conditions. In many places, these changes have important ramifications for the ecosystem, the economy and the safety of human communities. Understanding where and how coastal environments could change in response to sea level rise is a complex challenge dependent upon many factors—from interdependent ecological processes to data quality and availability. As a result, resource managers and other coastal decision-makers need tools that can help them to anticipate and prepare for the effects of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. Many models and methods are being used for this purpose. This document is intended for people who need to use model outputs for decision-making but who do not build models themselves. It provides a basic understanding of the parameters and uncertainties involved in modeling the future impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. This is a first step toward interpretation, informed use and communication of these models to support a range of sea level rise adaptation activities — from stakeholder engagement to habitat management to land use planning. Equipped with this conceptual understanding, managers and planners will be able to more effectively

• ask the right questions of modelers and scientists,

• evaluate the real-world implications of model results, and

• incorporate modeling results into management initiatives.

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