Climate Change

Topic

Topic pages summarize knowledge and resources within a subject area

Recent Topic Edits

• Public Goods
• Catchment Scale
• Conservation Using Acquisition
• Climate Commitment Act
• Initiative 1631 - Protect Washington Act

Salish Sea References

• Ecology Shoreline Photography Viewer
• The Encyclopedia of Puget Sound provides a peer reviewed version of the wiki
• PRISM Project Search
• Washington Coastal Atlas
• UW River History Project

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This page is focused on evidence, local predictions, and planning related to the broadly accepted theory of human-induced global warming. That theory has resulted from the convergence of multiple lines of evidence that describe:

1. the greenhouse effect of CO₂ gas in an atmosphere
2. the recent dramatic increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere only explained by human activity
3. the observed recent increase in mean earth surface temperature.
4. the paleolithic record showing a relationship between carbon dioxide concentration and earth surface temperature
5. our inability to explain temperature increase from factors other than CO₂ concentration
6. observed increases in sea level, reduced polar ice coverage, and global glacier retreat.
7. global climate modelling which both validates the CO₂ theory, and identifies feedback mechanisms anticipated to accelerate warming

This increase in surface temperature and CO₂ concentration are anticipated to drive predicable changes in precipitation patterns, summer high temperatures, sea level, ocean acidity, and other dynamics that fundamentally affect ecosystem functions, and the human society and economy. The vast majority of new research appears to be focused on understanding the rate and dynamics of global warming.

Lines of Evidence

• "The existence of the greenhouse effect was argued for by Joseph Fourier in 1824. The argument and the evidence was further strengthened by Claude Pouillet in 1827 and 1838, and reasoned from experimental observations by John Tyndall in 1859. The effect was more fully quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. However, the term "greenhouse" was not used to refer to this effect by any of these scientists; the term was first used in this way by Nils Gustaf Ekholm in 1901" (Wikipedia 3/7/2016.)
• Berkeley Earth is an independent research group developed by Richard Muller, who was skeptical of the quality of historical temperature record, and the selective use of temperature data, and developed a privately funded project between 2010 and 2014 to redevelop the recorded earth temperature record, using all available data and a transparent methodology. That work verified global warming observations. This work led Dr. Muller to change his stance on the recorded temperature record.
• Antarctic ice cores stored at Oak Ridge National Laboratory provide a 800,000 record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature at the time of ice formation, used to verify the linkage between CO2 concentration and earth surface temperature.
  • British Antarctic Society
  • Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
• The Mona Loa continuous carbon concentration record documents recent and continuous increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (See Scripps university for visualization)

Other Resources

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - represents 195 countries and completed extensive assessments and a synthesis report in 2014.
• http://www.skepticalscience.com/ is a private effort to synthesize and amass information that presents scientific evidence directly addressing the arguments of individuals that discount the likelihood of global warming.
• WDFW has assembled information about climate change in Washington
• The UW Climate Impacts Group published the substantive Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment in 2009. Mauger et al 2015 puget sound climate change provides a more detailed analysis.
• Mote et al 2003 preparing for climate change salmon water and forests provides an overview of potential social-political conflict over salmon, water, and forest fire likely triggered by climate change.
• The Climate Impacts Group Publications Page has a wide variety of literature or climate impacts.
• USGS and TNC are developing a Coastal Resilience Tool to support local planning with predictions of future inundation regime.
• NOAA has developed a new website serving their resources: http://www.climate.gov/
• USDA has its own climate change hub: http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/regional_hubs.htm
• The Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals has a website: http://www4.nau.edu/tribalclimatechange/tribes/northwest.asp
• Earth Island Institute and have set up the Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange

Potential Topics

It may be useful to more concisely summarize evidence and ongoing efforts around the following potential topics (based in part on the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment). There may be several ways to organize information given the interactions among drivers, feedback loops, and the potential to organize information by either impacts or drivers:

• Sea Level Rise
  • Sea Level Rise and Tidal Urban Flooding
  • Sea Level Rise, Storm Intensity and Shoreline Erosion
  • Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
  • River and Sea Level Rise and Groundwater Ponding
  • Sea Level Rise and Salt Infiltration
• Precipitation Pattern Change
  • Climate Change and Salmon Habitat Impacts
  • Reduced Snow Pack Impacts on Water Supply
  • Increased River Flooding
    • Intense flooding is driven by "atmospheric river" events. Rainfall intensity is anticipated to increase. This changes the paradigm about rain-on-snow being the driver of changing hydrograph.
    • Rain on snow events are theoretically captured by peak flow models, but an intensive analysis of model dynamics has not been completed.
    • Reserviors will affect river flow vulnerability.
• Glacial Retreat, Peak Flow and River Sediment
  • Ultimately change in west slope wild fire regime may affect sediment input.
• Increased Summer Temperature and Drying
  • Increased Summer Temperature, Reduced Stream Flow and Stream Temperature
  • Increased Summer Temperature and Energy Demand for Summer Cooling
  • Summer Drought and Forest Fire Frequency
• Ocean Acidification
  • Ocean Acidification and Shellfish Cultivation
  • Ocean Acidification and Salish Sea Food Webs

Pages

The following pages are categorized under climate change:

The following documents are categorized under climate change:

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