Chinook response to estuary restoration
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Estuary restoration has been widely used as a tool to support salmon recovery efforts throughout Puget Sound. While local benefits of estuary restoration have been evaluated extensively, population response to restoration actions has remained elusive. We will evaluate population response to estuary restoration extensively across multiple systems in Puget Sound and intensively within a single data rich system Skagit Delta and document changes in individual condition and smolt to adult return rates as a function of restored estuary habitat. In addition, we will develop an individual-based model for Chinook salmon in the Skagit Delta to infer restoration benefits that are difficult, or impossible, to evaluate with empirical data
Project Objectives
Extensive cross-system analysis
We will integrate several datasets from nine watersheds (Elwha, Dungeness, Skagit, Stillaguamish, Snohomish, Duwamish, Puyallup, Nisqually and Skokomish) to examine the extent to which populations benefit from estuary restoration. A total of 39 capital projects will be assessed for changes in habitat and associated population responses in Chinook salmon. Not all population responses can be evaluated for every restoration project, but each analysis will incorporate data from at least 21 projects. We propose to use an extensive analytical approach, focused on summarizing patterns across systems. Specifically we will:
- Calculate wetland habitat area before/after restoration action for 9 river deltas in Puget Sound (Table 1)
- Estimate abundance and size of individuals entering the estuary and nearshore habitat
- Calculate adult return rates to estimate population productivity before/after restoration
Intensive Skagit Delta analysis
While cross-system comparisons are valuable for assessing benefits of restoration across Puget Sound, they are potentially susceptible to multiple sources of uncertainty and data gaps as outlined above. To complement the broad-scale, cross-system comparison, we will focus on intensively analyzing effects of estuary restoration on Chinook salmon in the Skagit River, which has benefited from intensive watershed monitoring as well as multiple restoration projects established in a BACI analysis framework (Greene et al. 2016). We will produce two specific deliverables as part of this proposal:
- empirical evaluation of estuary restoration upon cohorts
- develop an individual-based model for Chinook salmon
Project Leads and Project Partners
- Correigh Greene - Northwest Fisheries Science Center (Principal Investigator)
- Joshua Chamberlin - Northwest Fisheries Science Center (Principal Investigator)
- Eric Beamer, Greg Hood - SRSC
- Oleksandr Stefankiv - Northwest Fisheries Science Center
- Jason Toft - University of Washington
- Michael Schmidt - Long Live the Kings
- Todd Zackey, Matt Pouley - Tulalip Tribes
- Joe Anderson - Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
- Chris Ellings and Sayre Hodgson - Nisqually Indian Tribe
- Jason Griffith - Stilliguamish Tribe
- Mike McHenry - Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe
